No I didnt write this, but I did insert some spaces between the paragraphs. Oh and the bolding, My buddy from Law School just emailed this to me...
Im starting to form a serious man crush, at least it with the whole guy, unlike Andy the Brits torrid obsession with Alan Shearer's golden left foot!, Look out Joey, the Browns are coming for the Ben-gals (in about 2 years). Anyway....
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Former Cowboys player-personnel guru Gil Brandt came up with a statistic for judging quarterbacks, and he determined that first-rounders who haveat least 40 collegiate starts tend to perform much better in the NFLthan those who had less experience. Recent four-year, 40-start quarterbacks include Manning, Chad Pennington, Drew Brees, Carson Palmerand McNabb.
* Since 1997, seven quarterbacks who had fewer than 30 college startswere picked in the top 10: Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, JoeyHarrington, Michael Vick, David Carr and Alex Smith -- according to anexcellent article by David Lewin on FootballOutsiders.com.
* Yes, there are exceptions: Kyle Boller had 40 starts but flopped withthe Baltimore Ravens. A tip-off should have been that he failed tocomplete 50 percent of his passes in several seasons. Tom Brady barely started for two years at Michigan, and he has won a few games with theNew England Patriots. Cade McNown had more than 40 starts at UCLA andnot much of a pro career. Ben Roethlisberger had 38 starts, and his experience showed when he had to start as a rookie for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
* Lewin took the 40-start theory and added that the closer a quarterbackis to completing 60 percent of his passes, the more likely he'll besuccessful -- assuming he had close to 40 starts. Lewin wrote: ``Here's a list of the QBs drafted in the first two rounds over the last 10 yearswith at least 35 starts and completing 57 percent of their passes:Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, DrewBrees, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler... Are thereany bad players on that list?''
* There are exceptions. Brady had 29 starts; Vince Young had 32 forTexas. Nonetheless, the theory seems to be right more often than wrong.For the record, top pick JaMarcus Russell had 29 starts and completed 62percent of his passes.
* That brings us to Quinn, who started 46 games at Notre Dame,completing 58 percent of his passes. In the past two seasons, he was 62percent with 64 touchdowns, with 14 interceptions. Given the majorschedule he played and how he started for four years, Quinn should have a good chance to become a viable pro quarterback.
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Ahhhh, just what the Brownies need!
How long will Browns die-hards be willing to wait for him to develop? What do the talk radio pundits think? Are they ready to drop the local hero Charlie Fry?
ReplyDeleteThey should at least give him as much time as Fry's had right? Will Romeo Crennel be around long enough to see Quinn "reach his potential"?
"Like Sands through the hour glass... so are the days in a brown fan's life"
I think Ed said it best this weekend - If he earns the job, then great.. but otherwise, don't rush him in.. Of course, human nature (and talk radio) being what it is, if the Browns stumble out of the gate, it'll be hard to resist.
ReplyDeleteI was looking around for an analysis of whether to throw rookie QBs in right away or wait.. here's one that basically says there's no advantage to starting them right away. But it doesn't really say "this is the best way: wait 8 games/one year/two years/..."
It's funny what a change of uniform can do... I was pleasantly riding the "Brady Quinn is a Joke" bandwagon throughout the 06-07 College football season... primarily because I wanted Troy Smith to win the heisman so bad.
ReplyDeleteNow that he's playing for my team my perspective has changed.
I think they should give him at least 8 games before he starts. That should be enough time to let him see the size and speed of the pro game.
ReplyDeleteAnd I too was a bit of a Quinn-hater in college - not only because he's from Dublin, but also because his mouth seems to be perpetually open, even when not speaking, suggesting his intelligence is somewhere in the ape-region.
But I can't deny that he is a good athelete. And his success would make for an extremely balanced and competitive AFC North.